← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 57% | 58% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.87 | fair |
| Crotone win | 18% | 16% | 5.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 49' | ⚽ | Edoardo Goldaniga · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 50' | 🟨 | Arlind Ajeti · Crotone |
| 61' | ⚽ | Matteo Politano · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 66' | ⚽ (og) | Francesco Acerbi · Crotone |
| 72' | 🟨 | Simone Missiroli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Francesco Cassata · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aristóteles Romero · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 39.00 | 527.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1477.07 | 1449.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.48 | -9.05 |
| eye test v1 | -1.05 | -0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| league points | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | -1.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.91 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |