← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 67% | 77% | 1.47 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 21% | 15% | 4.75 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 13% | 8% | 7.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Milan Badelj · ACF Fiorentina |
| 51' | 🟨 | Jordan Veretout · ACF Fiorentina |
| 86' | 🟨 | Amadou Diawara · SSC Napoli |
| 88' | 🟨 | Bruno Gaspar · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marko Rog · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Callejón · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 923.00 | 192.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1981.31 | 1734.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.59 | -11.38 |
| eye test v1 | 1.38 | 1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.40 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| league points | 38.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.53 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.10 | 1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 28.07 | — |
| state index | 1.53 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |