← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Guida, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 63% | 63% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.24 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 14% | 15% | 7.18 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Giacomo Bonaventura · AC Milan |
| 23' | ⚽ | Simone Verdi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 76' | ⚽ | Giacomo Bonaventura · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 39.00 | 801.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1634.87 | 1521.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.64 | 13.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.70 |
| league points | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.11 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 21.98 | — |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |