← Serie A 2017-18 · Mon, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Damato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 44% | 42% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.45 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 28% | 28% | 3.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Goran Pandev · Genoa CFC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Samuel Souprayen · Hellas Verona FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Stephane Omeonga · Genoa CFC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Nicolás Spolli · Genoa CFC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Andrea Bertolacci · Genoa CFC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Gianluca Lapadula · Genoa CFC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Marcel Büchel · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 551.00 | 33.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1493.74 | 1450.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.52 | 0.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.79 |
| league points | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.62 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.51 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |