← Serie A 2017-18 · Mon, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 41% | 41% | 2.41 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 36% | 3.26 | value: +16% |
| Crotone win | 29% | 24% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Jakub Jankto · Udinese Calcio |
| 53' | ⚽ | Jakub Jankto · Udinese Calcio |
| 66' | ⚽ | Kevin Lasagna · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| coach days | 521.00 | 429.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1468.99 | 1490.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.74 | 5.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.80 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| league points | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.00 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.20 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.28 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.21 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |