← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 73% | 68% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | 5.64 | fair |
| Benevento win | 9% | 15% | 10.67 | value: +56% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · AC Milan |
| 29' | 🟨 | Danilo Cataldi · Benevento |
| 38' | ⚽ | Giacomo Bonaventura · AC Milan |
| 50' | ⚽ | George Pușcaș · Benevento |
| 54' | 🟨 | Gianluca Di Chiara · Benevento |
| 57' | ⚽ | Nikola Kalinić · AC Milan |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ricardo Rodríguez · AC Milan |
| 75' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · AC Milan |
| 75' | 🟥 | Alessio Romagnoli · AC Milan |
| 89' | 🟨 | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco D'Alessandro · Benevento |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ignazio Abate · AC Milan |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alberto Brignoli · Benevento |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Benevento | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadio Ciro Vigorito |
| coach days | 63.00 | 32.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1424.17 | 1658.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.12 | 12.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.74 |
| league points | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.00 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | — | 21.98 |
| state index | -1.54 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |