← Serie A 2017-18 · Fri, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rosario Abisso, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 78% | 85% | 1.25 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 15% | 11% | 6.50 | fair |
| Spal win | 6% | 4% | 15.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟥 | Felipe · Spal |
| 19' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 22' | 🟨 | Maxime Gonalons · AS Roma |
| 32' | ⚽ | Kevin Strootman · AS Roma |
| 53' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 55' | ⚽ | Federico Viviani · Spal |
| 65' | 🟨 | Alberto Grassi · Spal |
| 82' | 🟨 | Eros Schiavon · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 37 | Shots | 3 |
| 15 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 183.00 | 1096.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 3.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1832.59 | 1526.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.44 | -0.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.65 |
| league points | 31.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 35.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.38 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.35 | -1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.37 | — |
| state index | 1.38 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | -0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |