← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 55% | 60% | 1.79 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.92 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 20% | 19% | 4.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Nicolás Burdisso · Torino FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 20 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| coach days | 25.00 | 513.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 0.40 |
| -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1662.88 | 1580.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.19 | -11.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.79 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| league points | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.08 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 21.98 | — |
| state index | 0.58 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |