← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 56% | 53% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.07 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 19% | 25% | 5.07 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Davide Astori · ACF Fiorentina |
| 25' | ⚽ | Stefan de Vrij · SS Lazio |
| 49' | 🟨 | Vincent Laurini · ACF Fiorentina |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ştefan Radu · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Khouma Babacar · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 604.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1737.54 | 1612.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.56 | 3.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.66 |
| league points | 28.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.88 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |