← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Gavillucci, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 85% | 89% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 9% | 8.40 | fair |
| Crotone win | 4% | 3% | 28.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Ante Budimir · Crotone |
| 45' | 🟨 | Medhi Benatia · Juventus FC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Blaise Matuidi · Juventus FC |
| 52' | ⚽ | Mario Mandžukić · Juventus FC |
| 60' | ⚽ | Mattia De Sciglio · Juventus FC |
| 71' | ⚽ | Medhi Benatia · Juventus FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Marcus Rohdén · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 4 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 1244.00 | 513.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1870.81 | 1471.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.76 | -0.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.76 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.80 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| league points | 31.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.38 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.28 | -1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | 1.44 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |