⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Hellas Verona FC 2–3 Bologna FC 1909

← Serie A 2017-18 · Mon, Nov 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Bologna FC 1909 win41%43%2.37fair
Draw30%28%3.26fair
Hellas Verona FC win29%29%3.43fair

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Giancarlo González · Bologna FC 1909
8'🟨Marcel Büchel · Hellas Verona FC
12'⚽Alessio Cerci · Hellas Verona FC
21'⚽Mattia Destro · Bologna FC 1909
33'⚽Martín Cáceres · Hellas Verona FC
59'🟨Mohamed Fares · Hellas Verona FC
74'⚽Orji Okwonkwo · Bologna FC 1909
76'⚽Godfred Donsah · Bologna FC 1909

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
17Shots12
5On target5
6Corners4
11Fouls11
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHellas Verona FCBologna FC 1909
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.220.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.21
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.440.56
cards avg (last 5)3.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMarc'Antonio Bentegodi
3.00
coach days537.00781.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.912.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.14
dominance (last 5)0.390.45
elo1486.491492.57
elo momentum (last 5)-23.89-15.60
eye test v1-0.81-0.88
eye trend v10.020.21
first sub minute (last 10)53.6056.00
form points (last 5)3.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
keeper form v10.640.54
league points6.0014.00
league rank19.0013.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.005.00
matches since win4.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0080.40
possession avg (last 5)41.0049.80
rest days15.0016.00
scorer concentration—0.33
season ppg0.501.17
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.60-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.8010.40
skill v1-0.890.39
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.802.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.602.40
state index-0.69-0.44
sterile dominance v1-0.840.39
threat rate (last 10)0.300.20
threat rate (last 3)0.270.20
threat rate (last 5)0.270.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20