← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 49% | 53% | 2.00 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.61 | fair |
| Spal win | 24% | 21% | 4.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Germán Pezzella · ACF Fiorentina |
| 40' | 🟨 | Marco Borriello · Spal |
| 42' | ⚽ | Alberto Paloschi · Spal |
| 60' | 🟨 | Marco Benassi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 66' | 🟨 | Carlos Sánchez · ACF Fiorentina |
| 75' | 🟨 | Marios Oikonomou · Spal |
| 80' | ⚽ | Federico Chiesa · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Federico Viviani · Spal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marios Oikonomou · Spal |
| 90' | 🟥 | Marios Oikonomou · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 20 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days | 1084.00 | 171.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1535.16 | 1613.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.73 | 9.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | 0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| league points | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |