← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Tagliavento, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 39% | 39% | 2.51 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 35% | 3.18 | value: +12% |
| Crotone win | 30% | 26% | 3.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Luca Rigoni · Genoa CFC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Nicolás Spolli · Genoa CFC |
| 39' | 🟨 | Adrian Stoian · Crotone |
| 54' | 🟨 | Miguel Veloso · Genoa CFC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Luca Rigoni · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.57 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| coach days | 506.00 | 18.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1484.49 | 1430.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.40 | -0.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.70 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.75 |
| league points | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 32.40 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.25 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.50 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |