← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 41% | 49% | 2.39 | value: +16% |
| Benevento win | 31% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Gaetano Letizia · Benevento |
| 30' | 🟨 | Francesco Magnanelli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 43' | 🟨 | Andrea Costa · Benevento |
| 57' | ⚽ | Alessandro Matri · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 65' | ⚽ | Samuel Armenteros · Benevento |
| 66' | 🟨 | Samuel Armenteros · Benevento |
| 67' | 🟨 | Gaetano Letizia · Benevento |
| 67' | 🟥 | Gaetano Letizia · Benevento |
| 90' | ⚽ | Federico Peluso · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 26 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Benevento | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Ciro Vigorito |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 49.00 | 18.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1437.28 | 1494.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.80 | -16.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.84 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| league points | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.51 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | -1.55 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |