← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 67% | 68% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.87 | fair |
| AC Milan win | 13% | 11% | 7.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Fabio Borini · AC Milan |
| 33' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 72' | ⚽ | Piotr Zieliński · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raúl Albiol · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Allan · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alessio Romagnoli · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 901.00 | 17.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1868.76 | 1656.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.97 | 9.96 |
| eye test v1 | 1.09 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.40 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.64 |
| league points | 32.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.67 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.48 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.00 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.16 | 22.28 |
| state index | 1.47 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.26 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |