← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Damato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 51% | 52% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.76 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 23% | 28% | 4.27 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Alessio Romagnoli · AC Milan |
| 45' | 🟨 | Francesco Acerbi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · AC Milan |
| 55' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bonucci · AC Milan |
| 64' | 🟨 | Riccardo Montolivo · AC Milan |
| 67' | ⚽ | Suso · AC Milan |
| 89' | 🟨 | Simone Missiroli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 10 |
| 7 | Corners | 10 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1506.16 | 1644.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.89 | -6.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| league points | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 22.28 |
| state index | -0.58 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |