← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rosario Abisso, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 92% | 86% | 1.06 | fair |
| Draw | 6% | 11% | 17.00 | value: +82% |
| Benevento win | 2% | 4% | 50.00 | value: +81% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Amato Ciciretti · Benevento |
| 37' | 🟨 | Danilo Cataldi · Benevento |
| 43' | 🟨 | Claudio Marchisio · Juventus FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Raman Chibsah · Benevento |
| 57' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Luca Antei · Benevento |
| 89' | 🟨 | Federico Bernardeschi · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 3 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Benevento |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 1223.00 | 35.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1885.60 | 1438.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.87 | -42.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.81 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.46 |
| league points | 28.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 2.55 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.19 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | 1.39 | -1.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |