← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 44% | 42% | 2.22 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 30% | 28% | 3.32 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.75 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Gerson · AS Roma |
| 9' | ⚽ | Jordan Veretout · ACF Fiorentina |
| 30' | ⚽ | Gerson · AS Roma |
| 39' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · ACF Fiorentina |
| 50' | ⚽ | Konstantinos Manolas · AS Roma |
| 52' | 🟨 | Germán Pezzella · ACF Fiorentina |
| 66' | 🟨 | Maxime Gonalons · AS Roma |
| 87' | ⚽ | Diego Perotti · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 21 |
| 6 | On target | 10 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days | 157.00 | 157.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1731.93 | 1935.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.58 | 10.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.75 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.00 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.86 |
| league points | 16.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 2.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.13 | 1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.37 |
| state index | 0.96 | 1.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |