← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 67% | 74% | 1.45 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 20% | 16% | 4.92 | fair |
| Chievo win | 13% | 10% | 7.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Ivan Radovanović · Chievo |
| 34' | 🟨 | Mário Rui · SSC Napoli |
| 53' | 🟨 | Piotr Zieliński · SSC Napoli |
| 81' | 🟨 | Kalidou Koulibaly · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 3 | Shots | 19 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 11 |
| 7 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 1131.00 | 888.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1494.70 | 1876.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.13 | 11.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | 1.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| league points | 15.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 90.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 66.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 2.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 11.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | 2.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 7.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.16 |
| state index | -0.38 | 1.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |