← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Chiffi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 70% | 76% | 1.41 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 20% | 17% | 4.94 | fair |
| Spal win | 11% | 7% | 9.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Bryan Cristante · Atalanta BC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Felipe · Spal |
| 63' | ⚽ | Luca Rizzo · Spal |
| 69' | 🟥 | Remo Freuler · Atalanta BC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Federico Mattiello · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| coach days | 522.00 | 1070.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 3.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1663.66 | 1530.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.36 | -22.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| league points | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.73 | — |
| state index | 0.65 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |