← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 55% | 56% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.56 | fair |
| Crotone win | 17% | 18% | 5.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Simone Verdi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 42' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · Crotone |
| 43' | 🟨 | Mario Sampirisi · Crotone |
| 45' | ⚽ | Simone Verdi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 48' | 🟨 | Ante Budimir · Crotone |
| 58' | 🟨 | Stefan Simić · Crotone |
| 67' | 🟨 | Emil Krafth · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Marcello Trotta · Crotone |
| 70' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · Crotone |
| 84' | 🟨 | Giancarlo González · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days | 765.00 | 491.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1505.19 | 1471.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.10 | 5.77 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| league points | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 32.80 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -2.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | -1.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |