← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 38% | 38% | 2.60 | fair |
| Spal win | 31% | 27% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 35% | 3.17 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Pasquale Schiattarella · Spal |
| 56' | ⚽ | Mirco Antenucci · Spal |
| 59' | 🟨 | Felipe · Spal |
| 73' | 🟨 | Goran Pandev · Genoa CFC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Luca Rossettini · Genoa CFC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · Genoa CFC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Marco Borriello · Spal |
| 88' | 🟨 | Eros Schiavon · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 24 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days | 1063.00 | 211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.58 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1523.83 | 1447.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.00 | 4.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 4.04 | 4.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.91 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |