← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 45% | 54% | 2.18 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.49 | fair |
| Chievo win | 27% | 18% | 3.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Karol Linetty · Sampdoria |
| 24' | ⚽ | Fabrizio Cacciatore · Chievo |
| 25' | 🟨 | Lucas Castro · Chievo |
| 26' | ⚽ | Lucas Torreira · Sampdoria |
| 40' | 🟨 | Dennis Praet · Sampdoria |
| 44' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Sampdoria |
| 60' | 🟨 | Dario Dainelli · Chievo |
| 72' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Cacciatore · Chievo |
| 78' | 🟨 | Karol Linetty · Sampdoria |
| 84' | ⚽ | Lucas Torreira · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 485.00 | 1124.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1573.06 | 1506.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.68 | 25.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| league points | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 5.04 | 4.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.20 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 22.98 | — |
| state index | 0.46 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.87 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |