← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca J. Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 85% | 78% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 18% | 10.00 | value: +78% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 5% | 4% | 20.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Antonino Ragusa · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 22' | ⚽ | Allan · SSC Napoli |
| 41' | ⚽ | Diego Falcinelli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 43' | 🟨 | Francesco Cassata · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 44' | ⚽ | José Callejón · SSC Napoli |
| 54' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 79' | 🟨 | Piotr Zieliński · SSC Napoli |
| 88' | 🟨 | Emanuele Giaccherini · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 881.00 | 1338.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1873.65 | 1508.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.34 | -23.49 |
| eye test v1 | 1.42 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.86 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| league points | 28.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.40 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 4.04 | 4.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | — |
| season ppg | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.41 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.16 | — |
| state index | 1.58 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.02 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |