← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 59% | 65% | 1.66 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.12 | fair |
| Crotone win | 17% | 14% | 5.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · Crotone |
| 18' | ⚽ | Marcello Trotta · Crotone |
| 39' | 🟨 | Davide Astori · ACF Fiorentina |
| 44' | ⚽ | Marco Benassi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 47' | 🟨 | Ante Budimir · Crotone |
| 62' | 🟨 | Federico Chiesa · ACF Fiorentina |
| 74' | 🟨 | Stefan Simić · Crotone |
| 74' | 🟨 | Khouma Babacar · ACF Fiorentina |
| 76' | 🟨 | Alex Cordaz · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| coach days | 485.00 | 150.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 3.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1458.62 | 1635.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.82 | 19.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.40 | 48.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| league points | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.80 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 4.04 | 4.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.73 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.64 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.41 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |