← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 74% | 77% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 6.06 | fair |
| Benevento win | 10% | 7% | 10.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Bastos · SS Lazio |
| 13' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 24' | ⚽ | Adam Marušić · SS Lazio |
| 42' | 🟨 | Nicolas Viola · Benevento |
| 55' | ⚽ | Achraf Lazaar · Benevento |
| 76' | ⚽ | Marco Parolo · SS Lazio |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jordan Lukaku · SS Lazio |
| 86' | ⚽ | Nani · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Benevento | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Ciro Vigorito |
| coach days | 28.00 | 576.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1446.17 | 1736.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.22 | 50.18 |
| eye test v1 | -1.04 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.76 |
| league points | 0.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 4.04 | 4.04 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.60 |
| state index | -1.43 | 1.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |