← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 74% | 84% | 1.33 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 17% | 11% | 5.64 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 9% | 5% | 10.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 48' | 🟨 | Andrea Poli · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 50' | 🟨 | Erick Pulgar · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 69' | 🟨 | Bruno Petković · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 71' | 🟨 | Daniele De Rossi · AS Roma |
| 72' | 🟨 | Filip Helander · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 149.00 | 758.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1933.66 | 1626.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.96 | 19.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.67 |
| league points | 21.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.54 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.56 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.46 | 25.23 |
| state index | 1.52 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |