← Serie A 2017-18 · Wed, Oct 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 83% | 81% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 15% | 8.12 | value: +21% |
| Crotone win | 5% | 4% | 19.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ (pen) | Diego Perotti · AS Roma |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ante Budimir · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 3 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| coach days | 146.00 | 481.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 2.40 |
| -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.27 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1821.14 | 1460.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.67 | 1.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 47.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.62 |
| league points | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 37.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.54 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.46 | -1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.37 | — |
| state index | 1.34 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | -1.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |