← Serie A 2017-18 · Wed, Oct 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 87% | 91% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 6% | 10.03 | fair |
| Spal win | 3% | 2% | 31.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Federico Bernardeschi · Juventus FC |
| 22' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 34' | ⚽ | Alberto Paloschi · Spal |
| 37' | 🟨 | Daniele Rugani · Juventus FC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 1212.00 | 1059.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1874.08 | 1526.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.12 | -38.10 |
| eye test v1 | 1.28 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| league points | 22.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 2.44 | 0.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.58 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.20 |
| state index | 1.44 | -0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |