← Serie A 2017-18 · Wed, Oct 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Livio Marinelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 75% | 74% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 19% | 5.96 | value: +11% |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 9% | 7% | 11.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | ⚽ | Remo Freuler · Atalanta BC |
| 59' | ⚽ | Josip Iličić · Atalanta BC |
| 75' | ⚽ | Jasmin Kurtić · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 511.00 | 511.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1671.26 | 1509.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.02 | -11.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | — |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.31 | — |
| state index | 0.72 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |