← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 40% | 38% | 2.48 | fair |
| Spal win | 33% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.53 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days | 1056.00 | 143.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1571.36 | 1628.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.21 | -16.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | — |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.86 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.90 | 29.36 |
| state index | -0.62 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |