← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rosario Abisso, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chievo win | 46% | 53% | 2.15 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.39 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 26% | 20% | 3.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Daniele Verde · Hellas Verona FC |
| 22' | 🟨 | Bruno Zuculini · Hellas Verona FC |
| 23' | ⚽ | Roberto Inglese · Chievo |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Roberto Inglese · Chievo |
| 40' | 🟨 | Bruno Zuculini · Hellas Verona FC |
| 40' | 🟥 | Bruno Zuculini · Hellas Verona FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
| 49' | 🟨 | Daniel Bessa · Hellas Verona FC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Alessandro Gamberini · Chievo |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Giampaolo Pazzini · Hellas Verona FC |
| 73' | ⚽ | Sergio Pellissier · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 1117.00 | 508.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1512.15 | 1517.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.93 | -7.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | — |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |