← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 64% | 65% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 17% | 4.34 | fair |
| Crotone win | 14% | 18% | 7.04 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Gian Marco Ferrari · Sampdoria |
| 6' | 🟨 | Ante Budimir · Crotone |
| 11' | ⚽ (pen) | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 25' | 🟨 | Lucas Torreira · Sampdoria |
| 26' | 🟨 | Adrian Stoian · Crotone |
| 38' | ⚽ | Gianluca Caprari · Sampdoria |
| 41' | 🟨 | Rolando Mandragora · Crotone |
| 71' | ⚽ | Karol Linetty · Sampdoria |
| 76' | ⚽ | Dawid Kownacki · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 477.00 | 477.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1566.45 | 1471.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.98 | 4.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 46.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| league points | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 37.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | -1.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 22.98 | — |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | -1.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |