← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 44% | 47% | 2.25 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.31 | fair |
| Chievo win | 27% | 27% | 3.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 62' | 🟨 | Alfred Duncan · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 66' | 🟨 | Marcello Gazzola · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| coach days | 1324.00 | 1110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| venue | Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.36 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1510.55 | 1510.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.11 | 31.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| league points | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.55 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |