← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Guida, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 48% | 48% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.28 | value: +5% |
| Spal win | 22% | 20% | 4.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Adam Masina · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 30' | ⚽ | Andrea Poli · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 49' | ⚽ (og) | Bartosz Salamon · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 55' | 🟨 | Erick Pulgar · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 70' | 🟨 | Marco Borriello · Spal |
| 88' | ⚽ | Mirco Antenucci · Spal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Filippo Costa · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days | 745.00 | 1049.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1508.17 | 1548.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.36 | -46.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |