← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Gavillucci, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 76% | 70% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 21% | 6.20 | value: +32% |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 8% | 9% | 11.88 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Iago Falque · Torino FC |
| 44' | ⚽ | M'Baye Niang · Torino FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Moise Kean · Hellas Verona FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Bruno Zuculini · Hellas Verona FC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Moise Kean · Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Zuculini · Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mattia Valoti · Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Bruno Zuculini · Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Giampaolo Pazzini · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 20 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.14 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.35 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 457.00 | 487.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1597.77 | 1506.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.58 | -39.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -1.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| league points | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.80 |
| state index | 0.27 | -1.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |