← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spal win | 51% | 47% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 21% | 3.43 | fair |
| Crotone win | 21% | 31% | 4.76 | value: +49% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Marcus Rohdén · Crotone |
| 39' | ⚽ | Alberto Paloschi · Spal |
| 59' | ⚽ | Simy · Crotone |
| 84' | 🟨 | Felipe · Spal |
| 88' | 🟨 | Pasquale Schiattarella · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days | 1035.00 | 457.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1552.88 | 1466.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.43 | -9.08 |
| eye test v1 | -1.01 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 45.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | -1.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | -1.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |