← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 64% | 67% | 1.53 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.50 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 14% | 14% | 6.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 26' | 🟨 | Stefan de Vrij · SS Lazio |
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 32' | 🟨 | Claud Adjapong · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Stefano Sensi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
| 53' | 🟨 | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 56' | ⚽ | Stefan de Vrij · SS Lazio |
| 57' | ⚽ | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
| 64' | ⚽ | Marco Parolo · SS Lazio |
| 69' | ⚽ | Marco Parolo · SS Lazio |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 13 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 548.00 | 1310.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1686.53 | 1519.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.27 | -24.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.65 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.55 | — |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.02 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.55 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |