← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 44% | 43% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 26% | 31% | 3.74 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Pietro Pellegri · Genoa CFC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Raffaele Palladino · Genoa CFC |
| 39' | 🟨 | Filip Helander · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 43' | 🟨 | Luca Rossettini · Genoa CFC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Emil Krafth · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 73' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Palacio · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Miguel Veloso · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 182.00 | 730.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1440.78 | 1498.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.65 | 19.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.80 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| league points | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.94 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |