← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 61% | 63% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.37 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 16% | 17% | 6.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Marco Parolo · SS Lazio |
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 40' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 51' | 🟨 | Moise Kean · Hellas Verona FC |
| 60' | ⚽ | Adam Marušić · SS Lazio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Adam Marušić · SS Lazio |
| 80' | 🟨 | Marco Fossati · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 480.00 | 541.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1519.52 | 1665.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.16 | 26.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 2.01 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| league points | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.56 |
| season ppg | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.98 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |