← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 79% | 84% | 1.24 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 14% | 10% | 7.01 | fair |
| Spal win | 7% | 6% | 14.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 13' | ⚽ | Pasquale Schiattarella · Spal |
| 14' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 39' | 🟨 | Bartosz Salamon · Spal |
| 53' | 🟨 | Federico Viviani · Spal |
| 67' | 🟨 | Pasquale Schiattarella · Spal |
| 71' | ⚽ | José Callejón · SSC Napoli |
| 78' | ⚽ | Federico Viviani · Spal |
| 83' | ⚽ | Faouzi Ghoulam · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 12 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days | 1027.00 | 845.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1556.83 | 1860.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.28 | 34.49 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | 2.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 2.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| league points | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 63.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | 2.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 8.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 10.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.16 |
| state index | -0.42 | 2.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | 0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |