← Serie A 2017-18 · Wed, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rosario Abisso, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 79% | 82% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 12% | 6.62 | fair |
| Spal win | 7% | 6% | 15.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Ricardo Rodríguez · AC Milan |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 66' | 🟨 | Pasquale Schiattarella · Spal |
| 88' | 🟨 | Eros Schiavon · Spal |
| 89' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 0 |
| 9 | Corners | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 476.00 | 1024.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.11 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | — |
| elo | 1675.87 | 1565.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.58 | -17.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.98 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | — |
| skill v1 | 2.01 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 21.97 | — |
| state index | 0.99 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.82 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |