← Serie A 2017-18 · Wed, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Damato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 45% | 45% | 2.16 | fair |
| SS Lazio win | 28% | 30% | 3.47 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Ştefan Radu · SS Lazio |
| 25' | 🟨 | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 29' | ⚽ | Stefan de Vrij · SS Lazio |
| 34' | 🟨 | Pepe Reina · SSC Napoli |
| 54' | ⚽ | Kalidou Koulibaly · SSC Napoli |
| 56' | ⚽ | José Callejón · SSC Napoli |
| 59' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jorginho · SSC Napoli |
| 79' | 🟨 | Lucas Leiva · SS Lazio |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Jorginho · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 11 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 537.00 | 842.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1677.94 | 1848.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.60 | 28.73 |
| eye test v1 | 1.17 | 2.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 2.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| league points | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 64.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.63 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | 2.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 8.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.16 |
| state index | 0.94 | 1.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | 0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |