← Serie A 2017-18 · Wed, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 42% | 43% | 2.33 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.29 | fair |
| Chievo win | 28% | 31% | 3.49 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
| 40' | 🟨 | Pietro Pellegri · Genoa CFC |
| 62' | ⚽ | Diego Laxalt · Genoa CFC |
| 73' | ⚽ | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
| 81' | 🟨 | Nenad Tomović · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 172.00 | 1085.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1444.49 | 1479.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.53 | 2.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.40 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| league points | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.76 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |