← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 49% | 45% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.71 | value: +4% |
| Genoa CFC win | 24% | 27% | 4.04 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Bastos · SS Lazio |
| 39' | 🟨 | Aleandro Rosi · Genoa CFC |
| 46' | 🟨 | Stefan de Vrij · SS Lazio |
| 57' | ⚽ | Pietro Pellegri · Genoa CFC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 73' | ⚽ | Pietro Pellegri · Genoa CFC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 87' | 🟨 | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 169.00 | 534.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1450.13 | 1672.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.04 | 9.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.20 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 2.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| league points | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.39 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |