← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca J. Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 80% | 85% | 1.23 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 14% | 10% | 7.19 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 6% | 4% | 15.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Radja Nainggolan · AS Roma |
| 33' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 45' | 🟨 | Samuel Souprayen · Hellas Verona FC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Mattia Valoti · Hellas Verona FC |
| 61' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 66' | 🟨 | Samuel Souprayen · Hellas Verona FC |
| 66' | 🟥 | Samuel Souprayen · Hellas Verona FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Daniele De Rossi · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 30 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 107.00 | 472.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1800.03 | 1524.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.52 | -32.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.79 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.70 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.68 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 78.67 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.94 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.21 | — |
| state index | 0.94 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |