← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 69% | 60% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.91 | fair |
| Crotone win | 11% | 22% | 9.20 | value: +98% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 442.00 | 107.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1569.31 | 1796.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.96 | 73.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.87 | 0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.64 |
| league points | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.00 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.27 | 1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.58 | 27.76 |
| state index | -0.13 | 1.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.84 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |