← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Damato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 49% | 47% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.65 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 25% | 29% | 3.98 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · ACF Fiorentina |
| 10' | ⚽ (pen) | Cyril Théréau · ACF Fiorentina |
| 24' | ⚽ | Davide Astori · ACF Fiorentina |
| 34' | 🟨 | Bruno Zuculini · Hellas Verona FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Giovanni Simeone · ACF Fiorentina |
| 62' | ⚽ | Jordan Veretout · ACF Fiorentina |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mattia Valoti · Hellas Verona FC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Gil Dias · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 14 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 10 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 466.00 | 101.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1545.56 | 1592.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.51 | -32.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 1.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 46.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.56 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.50 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | 1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |