← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Gavillucci, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 80% | 86% | 1.22 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 14% | 9% | 7.10 | fair |
| Spal win | 6% | 4% | 16.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Francesco Vicari · Spal |
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | Mauro Icardi · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 30' | 🟨 | Danilo D'Ambrosio · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luca Mora · Spal |
| 58' | 🟨 | Roberto Gagliardini · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 87' | ⚽ | Ivan Perisic · FC Internazionale Milano |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Internazionale Milano | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 101.00 | 1014.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | — |
| elo | 1790.28 | 1611.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 53.87 | 0.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.95 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.85 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | — |
| skill v1 | 1.19 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.74 | — |
| state index | 1.42 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |