← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Aug 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spal win | 39% | 28% | 2.51 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 32% | 39% | 3.08 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.38 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Marco Borriello · Spal |
| 53' | ⚽ | Manuel Lazzari · Spal |
| 72' | ⚽ | Bram Nuytinck · Udinese Calcio |
| 75' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Pezzella · Udinese Calcio |
| 76' | 🟨 | Sauli Väisänen · Spal |
| 85' | 🟨 | Federico Viviani · Spal |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Cyril Théréau · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bartosz Salamon · Spal |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luca Rizzo · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 0 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | — | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days | 1000.00 | 330.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.57 |
| elo | 1590.31 | 1482.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.59 | -29.95 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 1.00 | 0.58 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | — | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | — | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.28 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |